Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment sector, specifically focusing on the precision structural components segment within the lithium battery industry [3] Core Views - Precision structural components are critical parts of lithium batteries, with demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.9% over the next three years [2] - The structural components segment is characterized by high barriers to entry in terms of technology, customer relationships, and capital, leading to a stable industry structure dominated by a few key players [2][4] - The industry is expected to maintain a "one superpower, multiple strong players"格局, with leading companies likely to strengthen their competitive advantages [2][4] Market Demand and Growth - The global market size for structural components (including aluminum-plastic film) is projected to reach 514/611/690 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with a CAGR of 17.9% [4] - Square batteries dominate the domestic power battery market, accounting for over 90% of the market share in 2024 [3] - The demand for structural components is driven by the growth in power and energy storage batteries, with global energy storage battery installations expected to reach 149/194/220 GWh in 2024/2025/2026 [44][47] Industry Structure and Competitive Landscape - The structural components industry has evolved through three stages: initial development (pre-2005), domestic rise (2006-2018), and the current "one superpower, multiple strong players"格局 [3] - In 2023, the top five global manufacturers held approximately 63% of the market share, with Kedali leading the market [3] - The industry is characterized by high technical and capital barriers, making it difficult for new entrants to compete [2][4] Technological Trends and Innovations - The development of 46-series cylindrical batteries and fast-charging technologies is expected to drive innovation in structural components, potentially increasing their value [57][62] - Solid-state batteries, while evolving in terms of electrolytes and separators, are expected to maintain the demand for structural components as they still require casings [53][54] - Fast-charging technologies, such as 4C/5C/6C batteries, are becoming a key focus for battery manufacturers, which could lead to higher value-added structural components [64][65] Company Focus: Kedali - Kedali, a leading player in the precision structural components industry, has over 20 years of experience and deep customer relationships [5] - The company is expected to maintain robust profitability through scale advantages and cost control measures, with projected revenues of 12.346/14.846/17.822 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026 [3] - Kedali's overseas expansion is expected to contribute to future earnings growth [5] Market Segmentation and Applications - Structural components are used in various battery types, including square, cylindrical, and pouch batteries, with square batteries being the mainstream in the power and energy storage markets [15][18] - The demand for structural components is driven by applications in electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics [16][18] Raw Material and Production Requirements - Precision structural components require high-precision materials, with strict standards for aluminum used in battery casings and covers [73][74] - The production process for structural components involves complex manufacturing techniques, particularly for battery covers, which require multiple materials and processes [20][23]
电力设备行业深度研究:精密结构件:稳定且具备成长的锂电池优质赛道
国联证券·2024-11-08 14:23