10月贸易数据点评：短期扰动消退，回补效应显现

Group 1: Export Performance - China's October exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.0% and the previous month's growth of 2.4%[2] - The trade surplus for October reached $95.72 billion, surpassing the expected $75 billion and the previous month's surplus of $81.71 billion[2] - Key export markets showed improvement, with exports to ASEAN rising by 15.8%, to the US by 8.1%, and to the EU by 12.7% compared to September[8] Group 2: Import Trends - October imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2.0% and down from a growth of 0.3% in the previous month[2] - High base effects and weak prices contributed to the decline in imports, with significant drops in energy imports, particularly crude oil[15][17] - Despite the overall decline, some categories like agricultural products and high-tech products showed resilience, with imports of high-tech products increasing by 8.8%[15][17] Group 3: Market Outlook - The widening trade surplus may not be sustainable, as export growth is expected to face downward pressure due to external trade policies and economic uncertainties[19][20] - Domestic policies aimed at stimulating demand may support a rebound in imports, indicating potential convergence between import and export trends in the future[20]