Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.50-4.75% in November, marking the second consecutive rate cut, aligning with market expectations[1] - The rate statement removed phrases indicating "more progress" on inflation, reflecting concerns about rising inflation, suggesting a "hawkish" tone despite the rate cut[1] - The labor market's continued slowdown is a key driver for the rate cut, with non-farm payrolls adding only 12,000 jobs in October, supporting further rate reductions[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Future Guidance - The Fed's forward guidance is limited due to the absence of an economic forecast summary in the November meeting, with more insights expected in December regarding the impact of Trump's policies[2] - Current market pricing indicates a 76.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but future decisions will depend on upcoming economic data, including employment and CPI reports[1] - Powell emphasized that the Fed's independence is crucial, stating he will not resign under political pressure, and any changes in policy will be based on economic data rather than political influence[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Bond Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.4%, reflecting improved market expectations for economic growth rather than inflationary pressures[6] - Historical analysis shows that this current rate cycle has seen the largest increase in 10-year Treasury yields following the first rate cut since 1990, indicating potential for a future decline after initial spikes[7] - Powell noted that despite rising yields, overall financial conditions remain relatively accommodative, suggesting that the recent yield increases may be temporary[6]
全球流动性风向标系列(十五):11月美联储FOMC会议点评-降息路径将迎特朗普考验
2024-11-08 17:50