食品饮料行业专题研究：2024Q3大众品需求承压，原材料红利释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - Demand for consumer goods remains under pressure, with the restaurant sector experiencing a further decline compared to Q2 2024. However, the cost benefits from raw materials continue to support profit margins for key consumer goods companies [2][3]. - In Q1-Q3 2024, consumer goods companies achieved revenues of 241.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.25%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.57 billion yuan, an increase of 10.88% [2][3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by consumer stimulus policies and improvements in core assets and consumer expectations [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Demand and Raw Material Cost Benefits - Q3 2024 saw a slight slowdown in restaurant growth compared to Q2 2024, with compound growth rates for restaurant income compared to 2019 being 3.63%, 2.25%, and 2.92% for July, August, and September respectively [3][7]. - The majority of raw material prices for consumer goods continued to decline in Q3 2024, leading to expanded cost benefits for companies [13][16]. 2. Profit Performance of Consumer Goods Companies - In Q3 2024, consumer goods companies' profits outperformed revenues due to cost benefits and efficiency measures, with key companies reporting revenues of 78.20 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.03 billion yuan [18][19]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied significantly, with basic condiments showing a revenue and net profit growth of 4.40% and 10.22% respectively, while the restaurant supply chain faced a decline in profitability [19]. 3. Individual Sector Performance - Basic condiments benefited from significant raw material price reductions, while compound condiments maintained stable competition and profit optimization [19]. - The dairy sector experienced revenue declines but managed to achieve positive profit growth due to raw material cost benefits [19]. - The snack sector continued to show high growth due to channel advantages, with revenue and net profit increasing by 4.14% and 29.88% respectively [19].