银行业：11月人大常委会新闻发布会解读-化债力度超预期，大行资本补充加速推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting the sector's configuration value due to the unexpected scale of local government debt risk resolution and the anticipated long-term benefits from improved local economic fundamentals [3]. Core Insights - The report discusses a significant policy initiative involving a combination of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limit increases and 4 trillion yuan in special bonds aimed at debt resolution, which is expected to alleviate local debt pressure substantially [2]. - It estimates that the debt resolution measures will lead to a reduction in local government hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, while also emphasizing the need to curb new hidden debts [2]. - The short-term impact on banks from debt replacement is manageable, with a projected cumulative impact on net interest margin (NIM) of approximately -20.75 basis points over five years [2]. - The report anticipates that the issuance of special government bonds will enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of major state-owned banks to between 13.26% and 13.74%, potentially unlocking 10.7 to 15.2 trillion yuan in incremental credit [3]. Summary by Sections Debt Resolution Measures - The report outlines a comprehensive debt resolution strategy that includes a 6 trillion yuan increase in local government debt limits and 4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which will be implemented over three years [2]. - The total resources for local debt resolution are expected to increase by 10 trillion yuan, significantly reducing the hidden debt burden [2]. Impact on Banking Sector - The report notes that while the debt replacement will lead to a decrease in bank asset yields, the overall impact on banks' asset quality is expected to be limited due to their predominant holdings in government and financial bonds [2]. - It highlights that the capital replenishment efforts by major banks are accelerating, which will support their credit issuance capabilities and risk resilience [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank, based on their favorable positioning in the current market environment [3].