10月物价数据解读：PPI修复不及预期

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI decreased by 0.3% month-on-month (previous value 0%), and increased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value 0.4%) [1] - Food prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month (previous value 0.8%), while non-food prices remained flat (previous value -0.2%) [1] - The combined impact of pork, fresh vegetables, aquatic products, and fresh fruits led to a 0.20 percentage point decrease in CPI month-on-month, accounting for about 70% of the total decline [10] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed to 0.1% (previous value -0.6%), while the year-on-year decrease was 2.9% (previous value -2.8%) [15] - Production material prices shifted from a 0.8% decline to a 0.1% increase, while living material prices fell by 0.4% [15] - Durable consumer goods prices decreased by 1.1%, significantly impacting the PPI recovery [19] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The demand for travel during the National Day holiday supported non-food prices, which remained flat [11] - Consumer recovery momentum is weak, with prices for discretionary items like footwear and household appliances continuing to decline [13] - Core CPI showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a mild recovery [13] Group 4: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with a projected year-on-year central tendency of around 0.7% in Q4 [21] - The PPI year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, with an expected central tendency of approximately -2.5% in Q4 [22] - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.4% year-on-year decrease in transaction area for major cities [22]