美国大选点评：加关税或无法降低美国总贸易赤字

Group 1: Election Outcome and Market Reaction - Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, securing over 270 electoral votes, with the Republican Party also gaining a majority in the Senate[5] - Following the election results, U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 8 basis points and the 10-year yield rising by 16 basis points[26] - Major U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq up 3.0%, S&P 500 up 2.5%, and Dow Jones up 3.6%[26] Group 2: Economic Policies and Implications - Trump is expected to implement tax cuts domestically and tariffs internationally, which may increase policy uncertainty compared to the current Democratic administration[19] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue gradual rate cuts, with a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November 2024[31] - Trump's tax plan could increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability[33] Group 3: Trade and Inflation Concerns - Imposing tariffs may slow U.S. economic growth and raise import prices, with a 10% tariff increase projected to reduce real GDP by 0.36% by 2026[37] - The U.S. trade deficit reached $1.2 trillion in 2023, accounting for about 2.4% of global imports and exports combined[5] - The current global monetary system may prevent significant reductions in the U.S. trade deficit, as the dollar remains a dominant international currency[5]