印度展望：逆境中坚韧不拔

Economic Overview - Foreign institutional investors have withdrawn approximately $15 billion from the Indian market due to unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and China's economic stimulus policies[1] - Despite a strong performance in the first three quarters of 2024, the Indian market faced profit-taking and a decline in consumption, particularly in urban areas[1] - The rural market has shown signs of recovery, aided by favorable monsoon conditions, but urban market weakness has stalled overall consumption recovery[2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - CPI inflation rose to 5.7% in September 2024, primarily driven by a 36% increase in vegetable prices, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[13] - The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term, potentially delaying the recovery of private capital expenditure until early 2025[13] Sector Focus - The financial sector's focus has shifted towards insurance and brokerage firms, with a preference for companies targeting rural markets in the automotive sector[1] - The insurance sector has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% from FY2019 to FY2024, with health insurance growing at 18% during the same period[16] Market Valuation - As of October 30, 2024, the Nifty 50 index trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2, slightly below its 5-year average of 21.8[7] - The banking sector's price-to-book ratio stands at 2.3, lower than its historical averages, indicating potential value opportunities[7] Investment Recommendations - Key stock picks include ITC, Angel One, and ICICI Lombard, with a focus on companies that cater to the rural market[1][16] - The report suggests avoiding mid and small-cap stocks due to high valuations and recommends large-cap blue-chip stocks instead[6]