检测服务三季报总结：景气筑底，静待估值修复

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The testing service sector is still in a bottoming phase, with revenue growth slowing down due to weak domestic demand and overcapacity in the industry. However, a recovery in the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve supply and demand dynamics by 2025 [2][5][10] - The overall valuation of the domestic testing industry has fallen to historical lows, which may have fully reflected current expectations. As economic policies are gradually implemented and company performance improves, there is potential for a rebound in industry valuations [6][29] Summary by Sections 1. Testing Services: Industry Still in Bottoming Phase - The testing service industry achieved a total revenue of approximately 16.27 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5% [5][10] - In Q3 2024, the industry generated a total revenue of approximately 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with net profit of 780 million yuan, down 15% year-on-year [5][10] - The industry is experiencing overcapacity, leading to a decline in profitability, with gross margins and net margins both decreasing [12][13] 2. Valuation at Historical Low Levels, Potential for Recovery - As of September 30, 2024, the overall PE (TTM) of the testing service sector was 30.14 times, which is at the 19.54% percentile of the past five years, with a five-year average PE of 51.61 times [6][21] - The manufacturing PMI for September 2024 was 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery, which may support a rebound in the testing service sector [6][28] 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Opportunities for Valuation Rebound - The report suggests focusing on the potential rebound in valuations within the testing industry, particularly as the macroeconomic environment improves and downstream demand gradually recovers [29] - Recommended companies include Su Shi Testing and China Automotive Research, with a suggestion to pay attention to Hua Ce Testing [29]