工程机械三季报总结：国内景气度回升，海外降息有望带来需求释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the engineering machinery sector [4]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is gradually recovering in 2024, with domestic sales showing signs of improvement and overseas demand expected to rebound due to interest rate cuts [2][5]. - The report indicates that the domestic market for excavators has shown a positive trend, with sales growth expanding beyond excavators to other product lines [6][28]. - The performance of major companies in the sector is expected to improve, driven by policies such as "trade-in" programs and increasing demand in 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Engineering Machinery Companies - The engineering machinery sector achieved a total revenue of approximately 233.4 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with net profit rising by 15.4% to about 21.2 billion yuan [5][9]. - In Q3 2024, the sector's revenue reached approximately 71.3 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 29% to 6.3 billion yuan [5][9]. - The recovery in the sector is attributed to a rebound in domestic demand and an increase in market share for leading companies overseas [9][11]. 2. Domestic Sales Trends - The cumulative sales of excavators in China for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 147,000 units, a slight decline of 0.96% year-on-year, but monthly sales growth turned positive starting April 2024 [5][14]. - Domestic sales of excavators in Q1-Q3 2024 totaled 74,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.62% [5][14]. - The report highlights that the engineering machinery industry has entered a recovery phase, supported by significant infrastructure investments and government policies [25][26]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand recovery and overseas opportunities driven by interest rate cuts [6][28]. - It emphasizes that leading companies in the sector, such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [6][28]. - The report anticipates that the engineering machinery sector will continue to perform well in Q4 2024, with clear signs of improving domestic market demand [6][28].