从人大常委会看财政政策走向：化债先行，动态释放财政空间

Group 1: Debt Management and Fiscal Policy - The National People's Congress Standing Committee approved a large-scale local debt management plan, allowing for a total of 10 trillion yuan in debt support[2] - The debt management plan includes three parts: 6 trillion yuan for replacing existing hidden debts over three years, 4 trillion yuan from new local government special bonds over five years, and 2 trillion yuan for housing renovation debts due after 2029[3] - The total hidden debt for local governments is expected to decrease significantly from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 2.3 trillion yuan before 2028, saving approximately 600 billion yuan in interest payments over five years[3] Group 2: Future Fiscal Outlook - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase from 10 trillion yuan in 2023 to over 12 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a growing fiscal space[1] - The government aims to achieve a balanced budget for the year without increasing the deficit ratio, despite a 5.3% decline in tax revenue from January to September 2023[7] - The overall fiscal revenue growth is lagging behind the budget, with a 2.53% increase compared to a target of 3.3%[9] Group 3: Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The recent announcements have led to some market disappointment due to the lack of new fiscal measures, which may affect stock and commodity market sentiments[16] - Future policies will be dynamically adjusted based on economic recovery and external conditions, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations[16] - The anticipated issuance of special bonds and adjustments in fiscal policies are expected to support major projects and enhance financial stability in the coming years[15]