策略周报：财政扩张化债先行，更多增量政策“在路上”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the recent measures from the National People's Congress focus on debt resolution, which aligns with expectations and aims to enhance policy space for local governments to address issues such as corporate debts and employee wages [1][6][8] - The report indicates that while specific incremental details for other areas are not yet disclosed, positive signals have been released, suggesting that various policies are still under planning and research [1][6][8] - It is anticipated that the policy approach will be gradual rather than immediate, requiring comprehensive planning and deliberation, and leaving room for potential future measures [1][6][8] Group 2 - The report outlines key measures from the National People's Congress, including a one-time increase in local debt limits by 6 trillion yuan, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026, and a continuous arrangement of 4 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt resolution [7][8] - The report highlights that there are ongoing efforts to support the real estate market through tax policies and to issue special government bonds to supplement the core capital of major state-owned banks [8][9] - Future fiscal policies are expected to be more robust, with plans to utilize increased deficit space, expand the issuance of special bonds, and enhance support for key areas such as technology innovation and public welfare [8][9] Group 3 - The report notes that the capital market is likely to maintain a high-risk preference, with the stock market expected to continue with a bullish outlook, while the bond market remains stable without immediate bearish risks [1][7][9] - A significant increase in trading activity is observed, with the average daily trading volume in the A-share market rising to 23,987 billion yuan, indicating a resurgence in market activity [10][17] - The report suggests that the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and the National People's Congress next year will provide more qualitative and quantitative information regarding policy directions [7][9]