美联储11月议息会议点评：鲍威尔：降息25基点，不辞职

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in November, bringing the target range to 4.5%-4.75%[2] - The probability of another 25 basis point cut in December has slightly increased, but the change is not significant[2] - The decision to cut rates was unanimous, contrasting with previous meetings where dissent was noted[11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic data since the September meeting has generally exceeded expectations, with Q3 GDP growing at an annualized rate of 2.8%[23] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% in October, indicating a resilient labor market[23] - Non-housing inflation has decreased, while housing-related inflation shows a lagging effect[20] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets rose, with the Nasdaq up 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 0.74%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 11 basis points on the same day[15] - The DXY dollar index declined, and gold prices increased, reflecting market adjustments to the Fed's decision[15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The likelihood of the U.S. economy avoiding a recession remains high, supported by recent economic data[23] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction continues at a pace of $25 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS monthly, with a total reduction of approximately $1.81 trillion since June 2022[24] - Risks include potential overheating of the economy and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact growth[24]