石油化工行业周报：特朗普当选对石化行业的影响几何

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector [2][5]. Core Insights - The election of Trump is expected to lead to an increase in shale oil production and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, although it may also tighten restrictions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production and exports. This could result in a more relaxed supply-demand balance for crude oil, with a downward expectation for oil prices [3][5]. - The report anticipates that shale oil costs may initially decrease due to potential tax cuts and interest rate reductions, but will trend upward in the long term due to high costs associated with new wells [3][12]. - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine region and the Middle East may ease, which could further impact oil prices [3][22]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of November 8, Brent crude futures closed at $73.87 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05%. NYMEX futures were at $70.38 per barrel, up 1.28% from the previous week [3][33]. - The report notes that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.148 million barrels to 428 million barrels, which is 5% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [3][33]. - The report indicates a recovery trend in the upstream oil service sector, with expectations for drilling day rates to rise as global capital expenditures increase [3][33]. Refining Sector - The report states that the Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $10.60 per barrel, while the gasoline-WTI spread rose to $14.2 per barrel, indicating improved refining profitability [3][33]. - The report suggests that refining product margins are expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [3][33]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a decline in PTA profitability, with prices dropping to 4860 RMB per ton, while the PX price decreased to $838.71 per ton [3][28]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with some signs of improvement in demand expected in the near future [3][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to expected improvements in refining margins [3][28]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the polyester sector, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co., as demand is anticipated to improve [3][28]. - The report suggests that companies like China Petroleum and CNOOC, which have high dividend yields, may benefit from stable oil prices and improved operational quality [3][28].