煤炭行业周报：供应充足、库存高企，但旺季预期对煤价形成支撑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while coal supply is ample and inventories are high, seasonal demand expectations are providing support for coal prices. As of November 8, the spot price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 847 RMB/ton, a slight decrease from the previous week but a significant drop of 105 RMB/ton year-on-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the stability in production levels for coking coal, with a short-term price pressure expected due to the end of the industrial peak season. However, medium-term price recovery is anticipated due to policy stimuli aimed at boosting domestic demand [1][2]. - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for stable operations and high dividends, while Yanzhou Coal and Guanghui Energy are highlighted for growth potential at low valuations [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing development of intelligent mining in Jin City, which is expected to enhance coal production capabilities significantly. The city aims for advanced coal production to account for 95% of its total output by year-end [8]. - In Shaanxi Province, energy supply meetings have been held to ensure adequate coal supply during the winter heating season, with daily coal production maintained above 2 million tons [8][9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices at production sites remained stable, with various regional prices reported as follows: 720 RMB/ton for Datong, 650 RMB/ton for Inner Mongolia, and 725 RMB/ton for Yulin [11]. - The report notes that international thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with Newcastle coal prices rising to 144.95 USD/ton [11]. Inventory and Shipping - Inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports have increased, with total coal inventory reaching 26.94 million tons, up 5.15% from the previous week [3][18]. - Domestic shipping costs have risen, with average freight rates increasing by 1.62 RMB/ton to 40.24 RMB/ton [20]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings per share (EPS) for the coming years. For instance, China Shenhua is priced at 40.19 RMB/share with a market cap of 798.5 billion RMB [23].