钢铁行业周报：否极泰来，关注政策利好预期带来边际变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry [4] Core Views - The steel industry is experiencing marginal changes due to favorable policy expectations, despite overall performance pressures in Q3 2024. The focus is on the stronger supply-demand dynamics in the special steel segment compared to ordinary steel [2][21] - The report anticipates improvements in the steel sector driven by macroeconomic policies, which are expected to enhance demand and profitability, particularly for special steel companies linked to high-end manufacturing [2] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector index increased by 5.01% over the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.51%, Shenzhen Component Index by 6.75%, and the ChiNext Index by 9.32% [11][12] - Among the steel sub-sectors, special steel, pipe materials, and plate materials saw declines of 5.77%, 5.63%, and 5.40% respectively [13][17] - 82.22% of steel stocks rose, while 13.33% declined, indicating a generally positive market sentiment [17] Price Analysis - Domestic steel prices showed a downward trend, with rebar averaging 3588.6 CNY/ton (down 1.56%), wire rod at 3812.2 CNY/ton (down 1.38%), and hot-rolled plate at 3658.0 CNY/ton (down 0.09%) [35] - The report notes that raw material prices are providing limited support to steel prices, with coking coal and coke prices also declining [41][47] Industry Performance Metrics - In the first three quarters of 2024, key steel enterprises reported a total revenue of 4.54 trillion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.87%, with total profits down by 56.39% to 289.77 billion CNY [2][21] - Special steel companies showed a net profit of 52.28 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 33.61% [21][25] Supply and Inventory Trends - Steel production is recovering, with crude steel output increasing to 23.02 million tons in late October, reflecting a rise in operational activity among steel companies [49] - As of November 7, 2024, social inventory levels for rebar decreased by 24.18% year-on-year, while hot-rolled inventory decreased by 6.48% [49][58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the special steel sector, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and improved demand dynamics [2][21]