宏观和大类资产配置周报：内需对于稳增长的重要性或继续上升

Economic Data - In October, China's exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 2.3%[1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%[1] Market Performance - The CSI 300 Index rose by 5.50% this week, and the CSI 300 stock index futures increased by 5.36%[2] - Coal futures fell by 0.30%, while iron ore futures rose by 1.62% this week[2] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 3 basis points to 2.11%[2] Policy Implications - The new government debt limit proposal will increase local government debt resources by 1 trillion yuan, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate sector and enhancing fiscal efficiency[1][3] - The anticipated impact of U.S. trade policies under President Trump could negatively affect China's net exports in 2025, potentially impacting economic growth[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks and a lower allocation to bonds due to potential market fluctuations[4] Risks and Outlook - Short-term risks include slow global inflation decline and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3] - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for both global and Chinese economies, despite short-term challenges[3]