美联储11月议息会议点评：大选后如何看联储降息

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% on November 7, 2024[1] - Prior to the meeting, the market had priced in a 98.93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut[2] - The employment market conditions were described as "generally eased," indicating a broader adjustment in the labor market[2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The FOMC removed the term "further" from its inflation statement, reflecting a decrease in confidence regarding inflation improvement[3] - The September CPI exceeded expectations, with Powell noting that the inflation report was "not bad, but slightly above expectations"[3] - The FOMC emphasized that any government policies could significantly impact economic conditions and their dual mandate goals[3] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - The market currently anticipates a 64.6% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December 2024[10] - The inflation levels in 2025 are expected to significantly influence the Fed's rate-cutting pace, with potential economic growth and inflation pressures from proposed stimulus policies[10] - The Fed is expected to proceed cautiously towards a neutral rate, with a gradual reduction in the pace of rate cuts as rates approach neutrality[9]