水泥24Q3经营表现探讨：水泥“淡季不淡”，价格中枢或持续提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment recommendation of "Outperform the Market" for the cement industry [4]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a "not-so-dull" off-season, with prices expected to continue rising. The overall profitability of the industry is currently at a historical low, and major cement companies are also valued at historical lows, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Seasonal Performance and Price Trends - In Q3 2024, the cement industry showed signs of improvement, with a notable increase in prices. The average price per ton of cement reached 390 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22 RMB (+6%) and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15 RMB (+4%) [5][13]. - The coal price differential for cement averaged 319 RMB per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 24 RMB (+8%) and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15 RMB (+5%) [5][13]. - The Northeast region demonstrated a stronger performance in terms of production cuts and price increases compared to the national average [5][17]. 2. Financial Performance of Sample Companies - The report analyzed 17 listed cement companies, revealing that their total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 218.9 billion RMB, down 22% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.58 billion RMB, down 72% year-on-year [7][9]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue of these companies was 76.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 20% year-on-year, while the net profit was 3.12 billion RMB, down 16% year-on-year. However, the decline in revenue and profit showed signs of narrowing compared to Q2 2024 [5][9]. 3. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The total capital expenditure of the sample cement companies for Q1-Q3 2024 was 19.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 3 billion RMB year-on-year. This reduction was primarily aimed at expanding new businesses and optimizing production capacity [8][9]. - Most sample companies experienced a decline in operating cash flow, with notable exceptions like Conch Cement, which reported a net cash inflow of 10.3 billion RMB, up 7% year-on-year [8][9]. 4. Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cement industry’s potential recovery, particularly through policy support for capacity regulation and carbon trading market development. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring positive changes across policy, industry, and company levels [2][5][9]. - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to leading cement companies with scale and technological advantages, especially state-owned enterprises, as they are likely to benefit from the ongoing industry consolidation and recovery efforts [2][5][9].