建筑央国企24Q3经营表现探讨：Q3回款改善，资产质量或迎改善机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the construction materials sector, reflecting a positive outlook despite ongoing challenges [4] Core Views - The construction industry, particularly state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is experiencing improved cash collection in Q3 2024, driven by accelerated local government special bond issuance in August and September [2][4] - Industry concentration continues to rise, with sample companies accounting for 51% of new contracts in 2024Q1-3, up from 50% in 2023 [8] - International engineering companies show stronger growth momentum compared to central and local SOEs, with better profitability and cash flow performance [18][19] Key Metrics Summary Overall Industry Performance - Sample companies' new contract growth slowed to 3.3% in 2024Q1-3, with revenue and net profit declining by 5.0% and 1.4% respectively [8][9] - Cash flow improved in Q3, with operating cash flow narrowing by 144 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [13] - Debt ratios increased, with central SOEs' average debt ratio reaching 77.2% in Q3 2024, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [15] Segment Performance - International engineering companies outperformed central and local SOEs in key metrics, including ROE and profit margins [17][18] - Central SOEs like China Energy Engineering and China National Chemical Engineering showed positive revenue and profit growth, while local SOEs experienced more significant declines [19][20] - Profit margins improved for international engineering firms, with Sinosteel Engineering's gross margin increasing by 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [21] Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow ratios declined across the board, but central SOEs saw a smaller drop compared to local SOEs [22][23] - Debt ratios increased for both central and local SOEs, while international engineering companies reduced their debt levels [24][25] - Inventory turnover days increased significantly, with local SOEs facing the most pressure, up 102 days year-on-year [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued central SOEs with strong dividend yields, such as China State Construction and China Communications Construction [28][35] - Companies with strong overseas market presence and transformation potential, such as Sinoma International and China National Chemical Engineering, are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [35] Policy Impact - Accelerated local government special bond issuance in 2024 is expected to ease funding pressure on infrastructure projects, improving cash collection for construction companies [34] - Debt resolution policies introduced in 2024 could significantly reduce local government debt pressure, benefiting the construction sector in the medium to long term [34]