钢铁行业周度报告：本周钢材供需双弱，化债方案落地提振需求预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with prices slightly decreasing. The demand drop is slightly larger than the supply contraction, leading to a small decline in steel prices. The overall operation of the industry remains stable, with continuous inventory destocking [4][5] - The recent implementation of a debt reduction plan by the Ministry of Finance is expected to stimulate local infrastructure steel demand, which may positively impact market confidence and steel prices in the long term [2][5] Summary by Sections Supply - Steel supply has continued to contract, with daily molten iron output dropping to 2.3406 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons or 0.6% week-on-week. The overall production of the five major steel products is 8.6149 million tons, down 0.67% week-on-week [1][11] - The production of long products decreased by 3.68% to 3.2477 million tons, while flat products increased by 1.2% to 5.3672 million tons [1] Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased to 8.776 million tons, a reduction of 141,000 tons or 1.58% week-on-week. Long product consumption fell by 4.6%, while flat product consumption increased slightly by 0.25% [2][11] - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, medium-thick plate, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil saw respective week-on-week changes of -5.02%, -3.49%, -2.63%, 0.1%, and 5.75% [2] Prices and Profitability - The comprehensive steel price index is 98.89 points, down 0.6 points week-on-week. The price indices for rebar, wire rod, medium-thick plate, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are 3605.09, 3878.55, 3614.76, 3567.23, and 4155.85 yuan per ton, reflecting respective week-on-week changes of -1.4%, -1.15%, -0.38%, -0.1%, and 0.18% [2][11] - The profitability rate for steel enterprises is 59.74%, a slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week. The losses for rebar have expanded, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products have seen improvements in profitability [4][5] Inventory - Total steel inventory (including social and factory inventory) is 12.1879 million tons, down 1.3% week-on-week. Factory inventory is 3.9887 million tons, down 2% week-on-week, while social inventory is 8.1992 million tons, down 1% week-on-week [3][11] - The inventory levels for long and flat products are 5.447 million tons and 6.7409 million tons, with week-on-week changes of 0.5% and -2.7% respectively [3]