黑色周报：宏观预期渐落地，过剩压力暂未至

Supply and Demand Analysis - Daily average pig iron production in September was approximately 2.23 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year, but up 1.2% month-on-month[6] - Daily average crude steel production in September was about 2.57 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, but up 2.2% month-on-month[6] - Total inventory of five major steel products was 12.19 million tons, with rebar inventory at 4.42 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory at 3.31 million tons[1] Market Sentiment and Price Expectations - Short-term market sentiment remains cautious, with speculative demand showing signs of hesitation[2] - Rebar prices are expected to maintain around 3,400, with a lower probability of dropping below 3,300[23] - Hot-rolled coil prices are projected to stabilize above 3,500, with a lower chance of falling below this level[27] Cost and Profitability - The complete cost price of Tangshan steel billets is 3,127 yuan, indicating weak cost support due to falling iron ore prices[1] - The profitability of steel mills is increasing, with more mills reporting profits despite the overall cost pressures[6] Policy and Economic Outlook - The State Council has approved policies to promote stable growth in foreign trade, aiming to support the economy's recovery[1] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to transition from strong to weak, with increasing pressure on the fundamentals post-New Year[1]