农林牧渔：特朗普当选，对中国宠物食品出口影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [19]. Core Insights - The U.S. is the largest export market for Chinese pet food, accounting for approximately 18% of total exports in the first three quarters of 2024. The total export value of Chinese pet food reached 7.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [2][6]. - The report highlights the significant impact of potential tariff increases on Chinese pet food exports to the U.S., with a proposed 60% tariff that could lead to a noticeable decline in export volumes [5][6]. - Chinese pet food companies have strategically expanded their overseas production capabilities to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs, with major firms like Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Guobao Pet Food increasing their foreign production capacity [4][9]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - In the first nine months of 2024, the export value of Chinese pet food to the U.S. was 1.39 billion yuan, representing 17.8% of total exports. Other significant markets include Germany (1.26 billion yuan, 16.2%) and the UK (670 million yuan, 8.6%) [2][6]. - The share of U.S. exports has decreased from 37.2% in 2015 to 17.8% in 2024, indicating a shift towards other markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia [3][6]. Tariff Impact - Previous tariff increases during Trump's administration saw the U.S. impose a 10% tariff starting in September 2018, which was later raised to 25% in May 2019. This led to a decline in the share of Chinese pet food exports to the U.S. [3][6]. - The report anticipates that if tariffs are raised to 60%, there will be a significant short-term decline in exports to the U.S. [5]. Company Strategies - Major pet food companies have established overseas production facilities to reduce reliance on direct exports to the U.S. For instance, Zhongchong Co. has a production capacity of 58,000 tons, expected to generate 1.56 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, contributing 54% to its overseas business revenue [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brand growth for companies like Guobao Pet Food, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., which have developed strong local brands over the past several years [5][6].