农药：行业风口或指向杀虫剂-关注氨基甲酸酯类杀虫剂产业机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pesticide industry [1]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry is essential for global food security, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.9% from 2017 to 2022, driven by population growth [2]. - Supply growth is limited, with a significant expansion of pesticide raw material capacity in China's central and western regions since 2021, totaling about 670,000 tons. However, production levels are expected to remain below those of 2013-2014, indicating limited oversupply and potential for a recovery similar to the high demand conditions of 2013 [2]. - Insecticides are expected to lead the recovery in industry conditions, with exports improving significantly in 2024. The export value of insecticides in Q3 2024 exceeded that of Q3 2022, with a quarterly average growth rate of 9.5% from Q1 2023 to Q3 2024 [2][9]. - The expansion of insecticide production capacity has been relatively modest, particularly for carbamate insecticides, with limited competition from India, suggesting a favorable supply landscape for this segment [2]. - The report recommends focusing on pesticide companies with a high proportion of insecticides and specifically highlights opportunities in carbamate insecticide producers [2][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pesticide market is a necessity, with demand closely tied to population growth and limited supply-side expansion [2][5]. - The global pesticide market size was approximately $61.6 billion in 2022, with a projected CAGR of over 4% [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production of chemical pesticide raw materials in China has seen a decline, with 2022 output at about two-thirds of 2013 levels. The number of pesticide companies has also decreased significantly due to supply-side reforms [7][8]. - The expected raw material production for 2023-2026 is projected to be 267, 287, 314, and 327 million tons respectively, indicating a gradual recovery but still below peak levels [7]. Export Performance - The export statistics for pesticide formulations show a significant increase, with a notable rise in insecticide exports compared to herbicides, which remain below previous levels [9][11]. - The report highlights that the insecticide segment is recovering faster than other pesticide categories, with a strong export performance expected to continue [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investors pay attention to the improving conditions in the pesticide industry and specifically to companies with a strong focus on insecticides, particularly carbamate insecticides [33].