医药行业深度研究：原料药板块Q3收入及利润提速明显，看好Q4业绩延续高增趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly the raw material drug sector, anticipating continued high growth in Q4 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, the raw material drug sector achieved total operating revenue of 897.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.74%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 126.60 billion, up 27.89% [1][6]. - Q3 2024 saw significant growth, with operating revenue of 291.25 billion, representing a 12.64% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 41.11 billion, a substantial rise of 58.93% [1][9]. - The report highlights that the profit growth in Q3 was driven by several factors, including a low base from the previous year, the end of inventory destocking by downstream manufacturers, and the gradual recovery of shipment volumes for raw material drug companies [1][10]. Summary by Sections Q3 Profit Growth and Performance - The raw material drug sector's profit growth in Q3 2024 reached a three-year high, with a net profit margin of 14.11%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. - The sector's gross profit margin for Q1-3 2024 was 37.28%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.37 percentage points [11][12]. Contribution of Top Companies - The top 10 companies in the raw material drug sector contributed over 73.77% of total revenue and 82.71% of net profit in the first three quarters of 2024 [16][18]. - In Q3 2024, the top 10 companies accounted for 74.21% of total revenue, with New and Cheng contributing over 20% [18][19]. Valuation and Market Trends - The report notes that the sector's valuation remains at historical lows, despite some upward adjustments [1][4]. - The demand for raw materials is expected to continue improving in Q4 2024, driven by the expiration of patents for major products and the end of inventory destocking [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the formulation sector and those with significant new product launches, such as Aorite and Aoxiang Pharmaceutical [2][10]. - Companies with high proportions of new product business or aggressive capacity expansion, like Tonghe Pharmaceutical and Huahai Pharmaceutical, are also recommended [2][10].