Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Thunderobot Technology with an "Overweight" rating, citing its potential as a rare AIPC (AI Personal Computer) play in the A-share market and significant earnings elasticity from overseas business expansion [1][6] Core Views - Thunderobot, incubated by Haier Group, is a leading domestic computer hardware manufacturer with a product portfolio including gaming/domestic innovation laptops, desktops, and peripherals The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached a record high of 781 million yuan (YoY +8 95%, QoQ +30 08%), driven by AI-driven consumer electronics recovery and overseas market expansion [4] - The global PC market is nearing a replacement cycle, with AIPC expected to drive demand Thunderobot, with its close collaboration with Intel and Nvidia, holds 128 related patents and is well-positioned to benefit from the AIPC wave [4] - The gaming industry's recovery, driven by the normalization of game license approvals and the release of blockbuster games, is expected to boost demand for gaming PCs and peripherals Thunderobot, with its decade-long focus on gaming PCs, is poised to capitalize on this trend [4] - The company's light-asset operation model, combined with its cost advantages and strong brand recognition, positions it well in the competitive market Thunderobot's partnership with Huawei in the StarFlash technology further enhances its brand appeal [4] - Leveraging Haier's global sales channels, Thunderobot has rapidly expanded its overseas business, with overseas revenue growing from 51 million yuan in 2020 to 730 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 32 72% of total revenue [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Thunderobot's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2 735 billion yuan, 3 016 billion yuan, and 3 319 billion yuan, respectively, with a target market capitalization of 3 1 billion yuan based on a 1 13x PS multiple compared to peers [6][71] Industry Analysis - The global PC market is showing signs of recovery, with shipments in Q1-Q3 2024 reaching 194 million units (YoY +2 38%) The AIPC market is expected to grow significantly, with global shipments projected to reach 49 million units in 2024 [4][36] - The gaming industry is experiencing a boom, with 333 new games released in Q1 2024, driving demand for gaming PCs and peripherals Thunderobot's extensive product matrix in gaming PCs and peripherals positions it well to benefit from this trend [4][40] - The StarFlash technology, led by Huawei, is expected to revolutionize wireless connectivity, with Thunderobot being the first global gaming brand to adopt this technology This partnership is likely to enhance Thunderobot's competitive edge in the gaming peripherals market [44][48] Company Strategy - Thunderobot's strategy focuses on leveraging its supply chain advantages, cost control, and brand recognition to offer high-performance, cost-effective products The company's overseas expansion is supported by Haier's global sales network, with a dual-channel strategy of cross-border e-commerce and offline distribution [4][62] - The company's focus on AIPC and gaming PCs, combined with its strong R&D capabilities and patent portfolio, positions it to capitalize on the upcoming replacement cycle and the growing demand for AI-driven PCs [4][53] Valuation - The report uses a PS valuation method, comparing Thunderobot to peers like Chunqiu Electronics and Wingtech Technology, and assigns a target market capitalization of 3 1 billion yuan based on a 1 13x PS multiple The "Overweight" rating reflects the company's potential for earnings recovery and growth in the AIPC and gaming PC markets [71][72]
雷神科技：A股稀缺AIPC标的，业务出海业绩弹性大