农林牧渔：特朗普当选，对中国主要农产品影响几何？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - China's major agricultural products have a high self-sufficiency rate, with soybeans being the primary imported agricultural product. Among the three staple grains, rice is fully self-sufficient, while wheat and corn have minor imports, with domestic production accounting for over 95% of consumption [3][4] - The import dependency for soybeans is over 80%, with the proportion of imports from the US dropping to below 20% in the first three quarters of 2024. Over the past three years, China's soybean imports have stabilized between 90 million to 100 million tons, with domestic production around 20 million tons. In 2023, soybean imports reached 99.41 million tons, with 70% from Brazil and 24% from the US [4][5][6] - For corn, the import dependency is below 10%, with Brazil emerging as a new major source. In 2023, China imported 27.13 million tons of corn, with 47% from Brazil, 26% from the US, and 20% from Ukraine. Prior to 2023, the main sources were the US and Ukraine, which accounted for over 97% of imports [6][7] Summary by Sections Soybean Market - The import dependency for soybeans is high, with 86% of consumption met by imports. In 2023, the import volume was 99.41 million tons, with 70% from Brazil and 24% from the US. The trend shows a significant shift towards Brazilian imports in 2024 [4][5][6] - The US is a major exporter of soybeans, with China being the largest export market. In 2023, US soybean exports to China were 25.88 million tons, accounting for 56% of total exports and 41% of total US soybean production [6][7] Corn Market - The import dependency for corn is low, below 10%. In 2023, China imported 27.13 million tons of corn, with 47% from Brazil, marking a shift in sourcing due to geopolitical factors [6][7] - The historical import sources for corn have changed significantly, with Brazil becoming the largest supplier in 2023, reflecting the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade relations with the US [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the seed and planting industry sectors, highlighting companies such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Dabeinong as potential investment opportunities due to the anticipated strengthening of food security themes and the demand for independent innovation in seed technology [2][6][7]