【NIFD季报】特朗普2.0推高通胀 美债美指回落空间有限——2024年人民币汇率三季度报告

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report indicates that the US dollar index exhibited a "V-shaped" trend in Q3 2024, impacting global foreign exchange markets. The dollar index fluctuated between 100 and 106, with a notable depreciation of 5.2% followed by a 4% appreciation [2][6][8] - The report anticipates that the US 10-year Treasury yield will remain high, projected to fluctuate between 3.5% and 4.2% in 2025, influenced by "Trump Policy 2.0" which may lead to increased short-term risk-free rates and expanded term and risk premiums [2][30][31] - The report suggests that the Chinese yuan may continue to face depreciation pressure against the US dollar, with expectations of a trading range between 7.0 and 7.1 in 2025 [32] Summary by Sections Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the dollar index's "V-shaped" trend dominated the global foreign exchange market [5] - The dollar index fluctuated between 100.35 and 105.81, with a 5.2% decline followed by a 4% increase [6][8] - Various currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the Thai baht (6.7%), Malaysian ringgit (6.4%), and Japanese yen (5.3%) [8] Impact of Trump's Presidency on US Treasury Yields - Following Trump's re-election, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.63% to 4.42%, an increase of 79 basis points [19] - The report discusses the influence of short-term risk-free rates, term premiums, and risk premiums on Treasury yields, predicting a high yield environment [20][30] Future Exchange Rate Trends - The report outlines that the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar is expected to remain under pressure, with a projected range of 7.0-7.1 in 2025 [32] - The report highlights that the Japanese yen will also face depreciation pressure, with expected fluctuations between 145 and 155 against the dollar in the remaining months of 2024 [32]