华龙证券：华龙内参2024年第202期，总第1761期（电子版）-20241112

Market Analysis - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, while the North Star 50 index reached a new historical high, increasing by over 7% at one point. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 259.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Agricultural stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Qianle Seed Industry and Kangnong Seed Industry hitting the daily limit. Low-altitude economy concept stocks also performed well, with companies such as Zhongxin Haizhi and Chuan University Zhisheng reaching the daily limit [3]. - Overall, more than 2800 stocks rose, with sectors like agriculture, gaming, low-altitude economy, and real estate leading in gains, while multi-financial, AI mobile, banking, and coal sectors saw declines [3]. Data Insights - As of November 5, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 890.685 billion yuan, an increase of 11.126 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 835.662 billion yuan, up by 11.433 billion yuan, bringing the total financing balance for both markets to 1.726347 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.559 billion yuan [4]. Investment Advisory Views - The market is in a phase of consolidation, with indices closing in the red. The ChiNext index led the decline, and trading volume has significantly increased. The Shanghai Composite Index remains above several moving averages, indicating potential upward movement, but caution is advised as market divergence increases, suggesting a need for short-term consolidation [5]. Concept Highlights - The rare earth industry is entering a new development phase due to the establishment of large rare earth groups in China and the clearance of black rare earths. The growth rate of rare earth quotas for 2024 is expected to slow to 5.9%, compared to over 20% in the past three years. Recent border closures in Myanmar have hindered rare earth exports, but current market inventories and imports from Laos have prevented significant price fluctuations. If the import issues from Myanmar persist, an increase in rare earth prices is anticipated [6]. - The demand for rare earths remains robust, particularly in the fields of humanoid robots and industrial motors. The industrial motor sector is projected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 60% from 2023 to 2026, representing the largest incremental demand for rare earths during this period [6]. Key News - TSMC has agreed to raise prices for advanced packaging technologies, with potential increases of up to 20% for CoWoS packaging. Despite TSMC doubling its CoWoS production capacity this year, demand continues to outstrip supply, highlighting the importance of advanced packaging technology in AI chip development [7]. - The 7th China International Import Expo was held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai, showcasing low-altitude economy products, including eVTOL aircraft, which are expected to revolutionize short-distance transportation and tourism [7]. - The eVTOL industry in China reached a market size of 980 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 77.3%, with expectations for continued rapid growth through 2026 due to policy support and accelerated commercialization [7].