商贸零售：途虎深度系列3：复盘美国汽车后市场-连锁龙头穿越周期（公司篇）

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The leading companies in the US automotive aftermarket have demonstrated decades of stable growth and cyclical resilience. AutoZone has achieved a revenue CAGR of approximately 5.99% and a net profit CAGR of about 8.25% over the past 20 years, with no significant decline in performance during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. O'Reilly has seen its stock price increase over 43 times in the past 20 years, driven by steady same-store sales growth and improved profitability, with gross margins rising from 2.22% to 51.26% and net margins from 6.62% to 14.84% from 2003 to 2023. The fragmented but expansive Chinese automotive aftermarket presents opportunities for competitive companies to grow steadily, with a recommendation for the domestic O2O automotive service leader, Tuhu [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. AutoZone - Business Model: Positioned as a community auto parts superstore primarily for DIY users, AutoZone has become the largest automotive repair chain in the US with 6,300 stores as of FY2023. The company has expanded into the DIFM market since 2007, with a CAGR of 12.16% in DIFM revenue from FY2013 to FY2023 [13][15]. - Core Advantages: AutoZone has a high operating efficiency, with a 2023 ROIC of 85.7%, outperforming O'Reilly and Advance Auto Parts. The company has optimized its expense ratios, reducing operating, selling, general, and administrative expenses from 37.1% in FY2018 to 32.1% in FY2023 [20][21]. - Stock Performance: AutoZone's revenue CAGR from 2003 to 2023 is approximately 5.99%, with net profit CAGR at 8.25%. The company has maintained a gross margin above 50% since 2008, and its stock price has increased over 40 times since 2003 due to continuous buybacks [24][28]. 2. O'Reilly - Business Model: O'Reilly has established a dual market strategy focusing on both DIY and DIFM customers, allowing for a larger consumer base and efficient use of distribution and store resources. The company has seen strong same-store sales growth, outperforming its competitors [7][10]. - Financial Performance: O'Reilly's stock price has increased over 44 times since 2003, supported by improved cash flow and stock buybacks. The company's PE ratio has averaged around 22X since 2006, higher than AutoZone's 16X [7][10]. 3. Advance Auto Parts - Business Model: Advance Auto Parts operates three brands catering to different customer segments, with a focus on both DIY and DIFM. However, the company has faced profitability pressures due to high operating costs [8][10]. - Financial Performance: The company's gross margin has declined from 45.24% in 2014 to 40.07% in 2023, with net margins dropping from 6.03% in 2013 to 0.26% in 2023. The company has sold Worldpac to reduce costs [8][10]. 4. NAPA - Business Model: NAPA focuses on DIFM customers and offers a wide range of automotive parts and services, covering nearly all vehicle types. The company serves a diverse clientele, including repair shops and commercial fleets [9][10]. - Market Position: NAPA's DIFM customer base accounts for 80% of its business, which is higher than its competitors [9][10]. 5. Tuhu's Growth Potential - Tuhu has significant growth opportunities in self-owned brands and product categories, with its self-owned product sales ratio at only 26% in 2023, compared to over 50% for its US counterparts. The company primarily offers tires and engine oil, indicating substantial room for product expansion [5][10].