机械制造行业10月造船更新：造船板块Q3业绩总结，新造船价格阶段性回调不改长期上行趋势

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for both China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation based on their current P/Orderbook valuations being significantly below historical averages [12]. Core Viewpoints - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a long-term upward trend despite a recent slight decline in new ship prices. The market is expected to continue to grow due to high-value orders being delivered and the ongoing consolidation within the industry [11][27]. - The report highlights that the new ship price index has seen a slight decrease of 0.29% as of November 8, 2024, but remains up 6.20% year-to-date [9][11]. - The hand-held orders for China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation are projected to last until 2028, with significant increases in order amounts compared to the beginning of 2024 [3][11]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Summary - China Shipbuilding reported Q3 revenue of 20.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 858 million yuan, down 57.26% year-on-year and 15.13% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's Q3 revenue was 13.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.00% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 401 million yuan, turning positive from a loss [2][3]. Order Backlog and Profitability - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for both companies have been improving, with China Shipbuilding's Q3 gross margin at 11.62% and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's at 12.52% [2]. - The hand-held order amounts for China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation are approximately 29 billion USD and 21.1 billion USD, respectively, reflecting increases of about 21% and 31% since the beginning of 2024 [3][11]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the shipbuilding market is entering a phase where high-value orders are becoming the norm, with a significant portion of these orders scheduled for delivery in the coming years [11][17]. - The report also notes that the transition to new energy vessels is a long-term trend, with non-traditional fuel vessels accounting for 51% of new orders as of October 2024 [26][27]. Company Developments - Hengli Heavy Industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with plans to acquire 100% of its shares through a reverse merger with Songfa Co., which will shift its focus to shipbuilding and high-end equipment manufacturing [5][28]. - Hengli Heavy Industry currently holds 140 vessels worth 10.8 billion USD in orders, which is about 38% of China Shipbuilding's order volume [6][31].