10月金融数据点评：稳增的宏观政策已经更加给力，且看内需如何反应

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic policy has become more supportive, with a focus on how domestic demand will respond[1] - As of November 8, the National People's Congress approved an additional CNY 10 trillion local government debt quota, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach[1] Financial Data Highlights - In October, new social financing (社融) was CNY 1.4 trillion, which was CNY 448.3 billion lower than the same month last year and CNY 2.3676 trillion lower than September[2] - New RMB loans in October amounted to CNY 298.8 billion, down CNY 184.9 billion year-on-year and CNY 1.68 trillion from September, significantly below market expectations[2] Monetary Supply Trends - M2 growth in October was 7.5%, up 0.7 percentage points from September, while M1 decreased by 6.1%, a slight improvement from the previous month[6] - M0 increased by 12.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in cash circulation[6] Deposit and Loan Dynamics - Total deposits increased by CNY 600 billion in October, with a notable decrease in both household deposits (down CNY 570 billion) and corporate deposits (down CNY 730 billion)[7] - The increase in deposits was primarily driven by non-bank deposits (CNY 1.08 trillion) and fiscal deposits (CNY 595.2 billion)[7] Credit Market Insights - New corporate loans were CNY 130 billion, down CNY 386.3 billion year-on-year, indicating weak corporate financing demand[8] - Residential loans showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase, attributed to relaxed real estate policies[8] Financing Structure Changes - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure has increased, while the share of RMB loans has decreased, indicating weaker financing demand in the real economy[4] - Direct financing decreased by CNY 20.1 billion year-on-year, while off-balance-sheet financing saw a slight increase[4] Future Outlook - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to continue evolving, with potential further easing measures if domestic demand does not improve[1] - Key upcoming events include the Politburo meeting and the economic work conference, which will outline economic strategies for 2025[1]