2024年三季度央行货政报告解读：支持性货币政策持续

Economic Outlook - The global economy continues to exhibit low growth, with forecasts for 2024 from the IMF and OECD predicting growth rates of 3.2% and 2.6% respectively, below the historical average of 3.8% from 2000 to 2019[2] - Major developed economies are showing signs of recovery, but trade and investment growth are under pressure due to unilateralism and geopolitical risks[2] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation in major developed economies has decreased to around 2%-3% from peaks in 2022, but challenges remain due to geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices[3] - Domestic inflation is expected to show a moderate recovery, supported by macroeconomic policies and improved demand, with CPI anticipated to rise moderately by year-end[3] Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, emphasizing the need for increased precision in monetary policy adjustments to balance short-term and long-term goals[4] - Recent actions include a total reduction of 1 percentage point in the reserve requirement ratio and a decrease in the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5%[4] Liquidity and Financial Stability - The central bank plans to enhance liquidity through various tools, including reverse repos and MLF, while also coordinating with fiscal policies to support economic stability[4] - The report indicates a potential further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in the coming months[4] Monetary Supply Adjustments - The central bank is revising the monetary supply statistics to better reflect real conditions, including incorporating personal demand deposits into M1 statistics[5] - The relevance of M2 as a monetary policy indicator is decreasing, with a shift towards focusing on interest rate adjustments rather than strict quantity targets[5] Interest Rate Transmission - There are existing barriers in the transmission of policy rates to market rates, particularly affecting loan and deposit rates, which limits the flexibility of monetary policy adjustments[6] - The central bank is implementing measures to stabilize bank net interest margins while reducing financing costs for the real economy[7] Long-term Interest Rate Risks - The report does not extensively address risks associated with long-term bond yields, indicating that the central bank respects market-driven outcomes in yield formation[10] - The likelihood of further reserve requirement reductions is increasing, which may help control the risks of rising long-term interest rates[10]