策略周报：扩内需仍是稳增长重要抓手

Macro - The victory of Trump in the 2024 presidential election increases external demand uncertainty, making domestic demand expansion a crucial tool for stabilizing growth [2][9] - Trump's policies, including trade protectionism and prioritizing American interests, are expected to heighten global economic uncertainty, leading to increased expectations for China's counter-cyclical policy adjustments [9] Bonds - As of November 8, the 1-year AA-AAA credit spread is 29.13 basis points, narrowing by 0.49 basis points from the previous week, while the 3-year AA-AAA credit spread is 34.78 basis points, widening by 0.99 basis points [10] - The 10-year government bond to 1-year government bond spread is 70.05 basis points, narrowing by 3.36 basis points from the previous week, suggesting a focus on shorter-duration bonds with moderate credit ratings [10] Commodities Steel and Cement - As of November 8, short-process steel mills' operating rate is 66.67%, and long-process steel mills' operating rate is 55.00%, both unchanged from the previous week [11] - The cement price index is 163.91, higher than the previous week, with expectations for cement prices to stabilize and recover due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the housing market [11] Non-ferrous Metals - As of November 8, LME aluminum inventory is 731,900 tons, decreasing by 4,300 tons, while LME copper inventory is 272,400 tons, increasing by 1,025 tons [12] - LME aluminum spot price is $2,600.50 per ton, down $13.00, and LME copper spot price is $9,323.00 per ton, down $102.00, indicating limited downside for non-ferrous metal prices amid a soft landing for the overseas economy [12] Pork and Vegetables - As of November 8, the average wholesale price of pork is 24.24 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20 yuan from the previous week but up 18.77% year-on-year [13] - The average wholesale price of six monitored fruits is 7.22 yuan per kilogram, up 0.04 yuan from the previous week and up 6.33% year-on-year, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables is 5.20 yuan per kilogram, down 0.17 yuan from the previous week but up 14.54% year-on-year [13] A-share Market Index and Industry - As of November 8, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 5.51%, the CSI 300 Index by 5.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 6.75%, the ChiNext Index by 9.32%, and the SSE 50 Index by 4.30% [14] - The computer, defense, and non-bank financial sectors saw the highest gains, increasing by 14.41%, 12.23%, and 12.00% respectively, while the banking, public utilities, and coal sectors lagged behind with increases of 1.37%, 1.76%, and 1.96% [14] Current Valuation - As of November 8, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.84, at the 30.59% historical percentile, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.37, at the 36.18% historical percentile, indicating a relatively reasonable overall valuation [14] - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the ChiNext Index is 35.69, at the 15.94% historical percentile, and the price-to-book ratio is 4.29, at the 30.14% historical percentile, suggesting that the A-share market has investment value [14] Market Activity - As of November 8, the average trading volume for the Shanghai Composite Index is 97.12 billion yuan, and for the Shenzhen Component Index, it is 138.82 billion yuan, totaling 234.94 billion yuan for both markets [16] - The total number of newly established funds this week is 31.463 billion shares, a rebound from the previous week's 18.067 billion shares, indicating increased market activity [16]