上游原材料领域央企2024年三季报分析

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the upstream raw materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The upstream raw materials sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 10.6 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9% as of November 5, 2024 [1][12]. - The best-performing sub-sector is non-ferrous metals, with a growth of 17.2%, while the worst is basic chemicals, which only increased by 0.2% [1][12]. - The report highlights significant disparities in performance among state-owned enterprises (SOEs) across different industries, with some companies showing substantial profit growth while others face losses [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall performance of the upstream raw materials sector has been mixed, with non-ferrous metals leading and basic chemicals lagging behind [1][12]. - Specific performance metrics include: - Non-ferrous metals: +17.2% - Steel: +5.6% - Oil and petrochemicals: +4.3% - Coal: +3.7% - Basic chemicals: +0.2% [1][12]. SOE Performance in Q1-3 2024 - Non-ferrous metals: 17 SOEs, 15 profitable. China Aluminum's revenue was 173.78 billion yuan, down 7.8%, with a net profit of 9.02 billion yuan, up 68.5% [1][17]. - Steel: 11 SOEs, 3 profitable. Baosteel's revenue was 242.86 billion yuan, down 4.9%, with a net profit of 5.88 billion yuan, down 29.6% [1][17]. - Oil and petrochemicals: 14 SOEs, 12 profitable. China Petroleum's revenue was 2256.28 billion yuan, down 1.1%, with a net profit of 132.52 billion yuan, up 0.7% [1][17]. - Basic chemicals: 21 SOEs, 12 profitable. Sinochem International's revenue was 39.49 billion yuan, down 8.2%, with a net profit of -0.52 billion yuan [1][17]. - Coal: 5 SOEs, all profitable. China Shenhua's revenue was 253.90 billion yuan, up 0.6%, with a net profit of 46.07 billion yuan, down 4.5% [1][17]. Profitability and Operational Metrics - Non-ferrous metals: Overall profit growth of 30.42%, with ROE increasing by 1.84 percentage points [3]. - Steel: Overall profit decline of 193.59%, with total losses of 6.72 billion yuan [3]. - Oil and petrochemicals: Profit growth of 3.23%, with total profits of 419.87 billion yuan [3]. - Basic chemicals: Profit decline of 3.15%, with total profits of 5.87 billion yuan [3]. - Coal: Profit decline of 6.34%, with total profits of 100.26 billion yuan [3]. Industry Control - Non-ferrous metals: SOEs account for 18.05% of revenue, with a net profit share of 19.13% [4]. - Steel: SOEs account for 39.50% of revenue, with a net profit share of 189.45% [5]. - Oil and petrochemicals: SOEs dominate with 86.52% of revenue and 96.54% of net profit [5]. - Basic chemicals: SOEs account for 10.0% of revenue and 3.93% of net profit [5]. - Coal: SOEs account for 40.52% of revenue and 56.45% of net profit [5]. Investment Recommendations - Non-ferrous metals: Favorable performance with potential benefits from monetary policy changes in the US and China [6]. - Steel: Poor overall performance, but potential for recovery due to policy stimulus [6]. - Oil and petrochemicals: Strong market position, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like China Petroleum and Sinopec [6]. - Basic chemicals: Caution advised due to declining profitability, with a focus on leading firms like Luxi Chemical and Andisu [6]. - Coal: Strong performance from SOEs, particularly from Electric Power Investment, which shows the best fundamentals [6][7].