10月金融数据点评

Financing Data Overview - As of October 2024, the total social financing stock reached CNY 403.45 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, but down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - The new social financing in October was CNY 1.4 trillion, which is CNY 448.3 billion less than the previous year, slightly above the five-year seasonal average but below market expectations[2] - Government bonds contributed to the decline in social financing, with a net increase of CNY 1.05 trillion, down CNY 514.2 billion year-on-year due to last year's high issuance[2] Loan and Deposit Trends - In October, new RMB loans amounted to CNY 500 billion, a decrease of CNY 238.4 billion year-on-year, falling short of market expectations[4] - Household loans increased by CNY 160 billion, up CNY 194.6 billion year-on-year, driven by policies stimulating consumption[4] - M2 money supply grew by 7.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous value, while M1 decreased by 6.1%, with the decline narrowing by 1.3 percentage points[5] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a gradual stabilization, supported by fiscal measures and accommodative monetary policy, suggesting potential improvements in future financial data[6] - The upcoming fiscal spending and policy guidance from the December Politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference will be critical to monitor[6] - Risks include the possibility of economic recovery falling short of expectations and tighter-than-expected liquidity conditions[7]