燃气轮机：在能源转型及AI数据中心发展时期的新角色

Industry Overview - Gas turbines are widely used in power generation, transportation, and industrial power sectors, with power generation accounting for nearly 37% of their applications [1][8] - The gas turbine market size was $20.12 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% from 2024 to 2030, reaching nearly $25.98 billion by 2030 [3][17] - The global gas turbine industry is dominated by three major players: GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power, which collectively hold two-thirds of the market share for gas turbines in gas-fired power plants under construction [3][23] Gas Turbines in Energy Transition and AI Data Centers - Gas turbines play a critical role in energy transition and AI data center development due to their high efficiency, rapid start-up, low emissions, and fuel adaptability [2][12] - In AI data centers, gas turbines serve as a key supplementary power source, ensuring operational stability and safety during the transition period as electricity demand increases [2][12] - Gas turbines are preferred over diesel generators for data center backup power due to their lower CO2 emissions, faster start-up times, and easier regulatory approval [15][16] Market Dynamics and Demand - The U.S. and global data centers are expected to drive significant demand for gas turbine backup power, with projected annual compound growth rates of 18% and 15%, respectively, from 2023 to 2030 [3][37] - The total new demand for gas turbines in U.S. data centers is expected to reach approximately 30 GW, while global data centers are expected to require 40 GW by 2030 [3][37] - Over two-thirds of global gas turbine capacity under construction is located in Asia, driven by energy transition efforts and rapid economic growth in countries like China and India [17][19] Competitive Landscape - GE Vernova leads the global gas turbine market with nearly 55 GW of capacity under construction, followed by Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power [3][23] - Mitsubishi Power achieved a 36% global market share in new gas turbine orders in 2023, with its advanced J/H/G-class turbines capturing 56% of the market [24] - The gas turbine industry is characterized by long order cycles and large-scale projects, leading to relatively stable market shares among the top three players [3][23] Technological Advancements - GE Vernova's 9HA.02 heavy-duty gas turbine boasts a combined-cycle efficiency of over 64% and a power output of 826 MW, making it one of the most efficient turbines globally [29] - Mitsubishi Power's gas turbines now feature hydrogen co-firing capabilities, enhancing their decarbonization potential, with the J-series achieving a reliability rate of 99.5% [30] - Siemens Energy offers a diverse product portfolio with a focus on low lifecycle costs and high return on investment, catering to a wide range of applications [31]