有色金属行业专题研究：价格延续强势，业绩增长无虞

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry experienced a slight revenue growth of 1.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 24,232.9 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.9% to 96.65 billion yuan [1][18]. - The average return on equity (ROE) for the industry was 7.9%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 11.2% [2][32]. - Metal prices have shown strong performance since October 2024, with significant month-on-month increases in prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide, gold, zinc, aluminum, and copper [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved total revenue of 24,232.9 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% over the past three years. The operating profit was 161.22 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [18][19]. 2. Revenue & Profit Analysis - Quarterly revenue for 2024 was 7,308.3 billion yuan in Q1, 8,749.5 billion yuan in Q2, and 8,175.1 billion yuan in Q3, showing a recovery in Q2 after negative growth in Q1 [20][21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 334.3 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year [20][23]. 3. Profitability Metrics - The industry’s average ROE was 7.9%, with a gross profit margin of 11.2%. However, the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points due to an increase in expense ratios [2][32]. - The profitability of various segments showed that gold, non-metallic new materials, and aluminum had higher net profit margins, while the lithium segment struggled due to low prices [2][25]. 4. Price Trends and Market Outlook - Since October 2024, key metal prices have maintained a strong upward trend, with month-on-month increases of 9.7% for praseodymium-neodymium oxide, 8.2% for gold, and 7.1% for zinc [3]. - The report suggests that the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will support metal prices, and demand from sectors like new energy and consumer electronics is anticipated to boost metal demand [4]. 5. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as copper, aluminum, gold, tin, magnetic materials, and lithium. Specific stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, China Aluminum, and others [4].