美国10月核心环比通胀率如预期微跌

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the US for October decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 0.28%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The overall CPI growth rate slightly accelerated by 0.06 percentage points to 0.24%, also meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% due to a low base effect, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.3%[1] Housing and Services - The housing price CPI rebounded by 0.16 percentage points to 0.38% in October, with significant increases in lodging prices[1] - The super core services CPI growth rate fell by 0.25 percentage points to 0.30%, influenced by a decline in transportation services inflation[1] - Owner's equivalent rent inflation rate increased by 0.07 percentage points to 0.40% after a temporary drop in September[1] Employment Trends - Non-farm payrolls in October increased by only 12,000, significantly below the market expectation of 100,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.051% in September to 4.145% in October, indicating a weakening labor market[1] - Average hourly earnings growth accelerated both month-on-month and year-on-year, despite a notable decline in the quarterly employment cost index by 0.2 percentage points to 3.86%[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The prediction for a 25 basis point rate cut in December remains, with a 30% chance of pausing the cut[3] - The focus of the Federal Reserve's short-term policy is likely to remain on the labor market, with potential for a rate cut in December[3] - Risks include the possibility of recession if the Fed does not respond timely to economic weakness and inflation risks from geopolitical tensions[3]