医药行业深度研究：板块持续筑底，行业复苏可期

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for the chemical pharmaceuticals and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, while the biopharmaceutical sector is rated as neutral [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is currently bottoming out, with a potential recovery on the horizon. The CXO sector has experienced a decline in revenue and profit, but there are signs of stabilization and opportunities for growth due to changes in monetary policy and investment dynamics [2][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2024, the CXO sector achieved revenue of 640.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.74%, and a net profit of 108.34 billion yuan, down 22.51% [8][11]. - The gross margin for the CXO sector was 41.36% in the first three quarters of 2024, while the net margin was 16.97%, indicating pressure on profitability due to declining revenues [8][11]. 2. Efficiency - Revenue per capita for the CXO sector was 55.39 million yuan, a decrease of 6.19% year-on-year, while profit per capita was 9.38 million yuan, down 32.39% [11][12]. 3. Demand - The CXO sector's contract liabilities and advance receipts stood at 69.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.02%, reflecting a slight decline in order growth [12][13]. 4. Supply - The construction of new capacity has slowed, with ongoing projects valued at 123.56 billion yuan, down 11.13% year-on-year. The total number of employees in the CXO sector decreased by 1.66% to 115,554 [12][14]. 5. Valuation - The current PE ratio for the CXO index is 35.26, significantly lower than the median of 54.57, indicating a potential undervaluation and attractive investment opportunities [15][16]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following factors: changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, marginal changes in investment and financing, gradual recovery in overseas demand, geopolitical relations, and the introduction of supportive policies for the innovative drug industry [20][21]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include: - NuoSiGe: Focused on clinical CRO services with a comprehensive service capability [21][22]. - YangGuangNuoHe: Strong growth in clinical business with an increasing proportion of innovative drugs [24][25]. - HongBoYao: Specializes in small molecule drug design, leveraging AI for new drug development [26][29]. - PuRuiSi: A leading SMO company providing clinical trial management services [30][31]. - BaiChengYao: A high-growth CRO with a diverse business model [33][34].