AKL(SH:603722)2024-11-14 08:23Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a revenue of 365 million yuan, down 32.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of -7 million yuan [2]. - The price of the company's main product, polyether amine, has reached historical lows due to lower-than-expected offshore wind power installations and increased domestic production capacity [2]. - The offshore wind power installation is expected to accelerate, which may lead to a recovery in the demand for polyether amine products used in wind turbine blades [2]. - The company has made significant progress in the research and development of cyclic olefin copolymers (COC/COP), which are expected to become a second growth curve for the company as domestic demand for these materials increases [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 365 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8.77%, down 6.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 122 million yuan, a decrease of 0.69% year-on-year and 49.45% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 4.56%, down 8.85 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Market Outlook - The domestic wind power installation reached 39.12 GW in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 16.85% year-on-year, with offshore wind installations growing by 72.73% [2]. - The company has established a production line for cyclic olefin copolymers and has begun mass production, indicating readiness for market entry [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 489 million yuan, 758 million yuan, and 1.18 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.68 million yuan, 57.39 million yuan, and 121.37 million yuan [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.09 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 1.27 yuan for the same years, with the current price corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 556.54, 84.12, and 39.78 [8].