板块持续筑底，行业复苏可期

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for the chemical pharmaceuticals and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, while the biopharmaceutical sector is rated as Neutral [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is currently bottoming out, with a potential recovery on the horizon. The CXO sector has seen a narrowing decline in revenue and profit pressures, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 7.74% and a net profit decline of 22.51% for the first three quarters of 2024 [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policies, investment and financing conditions, overseas demand recovery, U.S.-China relations, and the introduction of supportive policies for the entire innovative drug industry chain [20][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Review - The CXO sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 640.01 billion, down 7.74% year-on-year, while net profit was 108.34 billion, down 22.51% [3][8]. - The gross margin for the CXO sector was 41.36% for the first three quarters of 2024, while the net margin was 16.97%, indicating a slight increase in gross margin but a decrease in net margin due to revenue decline [8][11]. 2. Efficiency - Revenue per capita for the first three quarters of 2024 was 55.39 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.19%, while profit per capita was 9.38 million, down 32.39% [11][10]. - The report attributes the decline in operational efficiency to a prolonged low investment environment in the pharmaceutical sector and a lack of growth in conventional business [11][10]. 3. Demand - The CXO sector's contract liabilities and advance receipts were 69.80 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.02% year-on-year, reflecting a slight decline in order growth [12][13]. - The report notes that the demand side is influenced by high base effects from large orders and the cyclical bottoming of the industry [12][13]. 4. Supply - The construction of production capacity has slowed, with ongoing projects valued at 123.56 billion, down 11.13% year-on-year [13][14]. - The total number of employees in the CXO sector decreased to 115,554, a decline of 1.66% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in workforce amid industry adjustments [14][15]. 5. Valuation - The CXO index is currently at a low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35.26, significantly below the median of 54.57, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [15][16]. - The report highlights that the CXO index has decreased by 9.12% year-to-date, contrasting with a 19.61% increase in the CSI 300 index [15][16]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like 诺思格 (301333), 阳光诺和 (688621), 泓博医药 (301230), and 普蕊斯 (301096) due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential in the clinical CRO and innovative drug sectors [21][24][30].