10月金融数据点评：财政发力：M2增速回升

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October, the total social financing (社融) increased by 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan, with the stock growth rate continuing to decline to 7.8%[4] - The cumulative social financing scale from January to October reached 27.06 trillion yuan, which is 4.13 trillion yuan less than the same period last year[4] - The new RMB loans in October amounted to 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion yuan[7] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that monetary and fiscal policies will continue to support economic stability, with a steady and accommodative monetary policy expected to persist[1] - The fiscal counter-cyclical adjustment is anticipated to strengthen, particularly with significant room for central fiscal efforts[1] - The report emphasizes the need for patience regarding the stabilization of domestic demand, indicating that credit financing remains a key forward-looking indicator[1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - There was a marginal improvement in household credit, with new loans in October showing a year-on-year increase, ending eight months of negative growth[7] - Corporate credit demand remains weak, with new loans to enterprises in October totaling 130 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 386.3 billion yuan[11] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's recovery is crucial for supporting household financing, as evidenced by improved sales in major cities[9] Group 4: Monetary Supply Metrics - The M2 growth rate rose to 7.5% in October, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from September, driven by accelerated fiscal spending[14] - M1 also showed signs of recovery, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -6.1%, indicating improved liquidity conditions[14]