腾讯控股：净利润表现亮眼，AI持续赋能

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings Limited (00700.HK) [1][10]. Core Insights - Tencent's net profit showed strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 167.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8%, aligning with Factset consensus expectations. Gross margin improved from 49% to 53%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin businesses and enhanced profitability in cloud services [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 59.8 billion RMB, up 33% year-on-year, exceeding Factset consensus by 12%, primarily due to a 19% decrease in income tax expenses compared to the previous year [1]. - Domestic gaming business growth accelerated, with value-added services revenue at 82.7 billion RMB (up 9% year-on-year), and domestic game revenue reaching 37.3 billion RMB (up 14% year-on-year), supported by strong performances from established games and new releases [1]. - AI-driven advertising continues to empower growth, with marketing services revenue at 30 billion RMB (up 17% year-on-year), and search revenue more than doubling, benefiting from improved ad targeting through AI models [1]. - The mini-program ecosystem is expanding, with transaction volume reaching 2 trillion RMB in Q3 2024, and the recent upgrade of WeChat mini-stores is expected to enhance e-commerce capabilities [1]. - The company repurchased approximately 35.9 billion HKD worth of shares in Q3 2024, with plans to exceed 100 billion HKD in buybacks for the year [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 653.2 billion RMB, 721.4 billion RMB, and 791.8 billion RMB, respectively. Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same years are 221.3 billion RMB, 240.7 billion RMB, and 264.9 billion RMB [2][5]. - Key financial metrics include a gross margin of 53% for 2024, with a projected increase to 54.7% in 2025 and 54.9% in 2026. Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to be 33.9% in 2024, slightly decreasing in subsequent years [2][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 308.4 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 376.0 billion RMB by 2026 [6].