Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current closing price of HKD 14.92 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a strong performance in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with a projected net profit of over RMB 2 billion for Q4, corresponding to a profit margin of over 4% [1][2]. - The company is expected to enter a relatively stable profit margin phase in 2025, with a projected adjusted net profit of RMB 7.9 billion for 2024, reflecting a 30% increase from previous estimates [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's cost reduction strategies, including product upgrades, network optimization, and increased automation, which have significantly improved profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, JD Logistics achieved a revenue of RMB 44.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a gross profit margin improvement of nearly 4 percentage points to 12% [1][5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was RMB 2.6 billion, approximately double the previous year, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.8%, the highest quarterly level since the company went public [1][3]. - The report projects total revenue for 2024 to reach RMB 180.83 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4% [2][9]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been increased to RMB 7.9 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4%, and for 2025, the adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 7.9 billion [3][9]. - Revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with 2024 revenue expected at RMB 180.83 billion and 2025 at RMB 193.08 billion [3][9]. Market Position and Valuation - JD Logistics' market capitalization is approximately HKD 98.86 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 52.56% [4][5]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 16.34 and a low of HKD 6.80, indicating significant volatility and growth potential [4][5].
京东物流：3季度利润超预期，预计2024年利润率4%+，进入相对稳定阶段