钢铁行业2024年三季报回顾：行业景气触底，关注Q4盈利修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry, anticipating a recovery in profits in Q4 2024 [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in its fundamentals, driven by strong supply constraints and a recovery in demand, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure sectors [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant decline in profits for the steel sector in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of -1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 109.6% [2][18]. - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies, particularly those in the manufacturing sector, as well as high-end stainless steel pipe manufacturers benefiting from the oil and gas sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Sector Performance - The steel sector index increased by 2.23% in the first three quarters of 2024, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 12.15% [10]. - The average asset-liability ratio for the steel industry reached approximately 54.7% by the end of September 2024, reflecting an upward trend [28]. 2. Q3 Performance Overview - The steel sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.3075 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.15% year-on-year [16]. - The average expense ratio for the steel sector increased to 9.1%, up from 7.83% in the same period of 2023 [23]. 3. Profitability and Price Trends - The average price of rebar in Q3 2024 was approximately 3,306 yuan per ton, down from 3,602 yuan per ton in Q2 2024, indicating a significant decline in profitability [30]. - The report notes that the overall profit level of the steel industry is at a historical low, with a total loss of approximately 33.79 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [31]. 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in steel profits in Q4 2024, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [34][38]. - The issuance of special bonds by local governments is expected to accelerate, providing necessary funding for infrastructure projects and boosting steel demand [38].