大陆消费月报：耐消品回暖 社零继续升温

Macroeconomic Overview - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached approximately 4.5 trillion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, up from 3.2% in the previous month [3] - The sales of goods accounted for 4 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, while catering sales reached 495.2 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [3] - Online retail sales amounted to 1.5 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, but improved from a 1.8% decline in the previous month [3] Consumer Sector Performance - Essential consumption (food and daily necessities) showed resilience, with retail sales growing by 13.2% year-on-year in October [4] - Discretionary consumption (automobiles, home appliances, communication devices) saw a year-on-year increase of 9%, with home appliances growing by 39.2% due to government subsidies [4] - The cosmetics sector experienced significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 40% driven by promotional activities [4] E-commerce and Promotions - The Double Eleven shopping festival generated a total sales volume of 14.418 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [5] - Comprehensive e-commerce platforms contributed 11.093 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year, while live-streaming e-commerce sales reached 3.325 billion yuan, increasing by 54.6% [5] - The extended promotional period and government subsidies for "old-for-new" exchanges significantly boosted sales in home appliances and 3C products [5] Travel and Entertainment - The recovery of outbound flights has weakened post-National Day, with current flight volumes at over 70% of 2019 levels, down more than 20 percentage points from the peak earlier this year [7] - The film market remains subdued, with October box office revenues at 3.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1% [9] Alcohol Industry - The liquor market, particularly Moutai, has seen price fluctuations, with recent efforts to stabilize market order amid promotional pressures [10] - The industry faces challenges from e-commerce platforms, leading to increased tensions between traditional channels and online sales [10] Price Trends and CPI - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October, with food prices increasing by 2.9% [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, widening the gap between PPI and CPI to 3.2% [12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on durable consumer goods, particularly home appliances and automobiles, which are benefiting from government support and promotional activities [21] - Recommended stocks include Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), BYD (002594.SZ), and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) [21]