进出口数据点评（2024年10月）：弱月不弱

Export Performance - In October 2024, China's export value increased by 12.7% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 10.3 percentage points from September[3] - The total export amount reached $309.06 billion, contributing to a total trade volume of$522.4 billion, which is a 6.1% increase year-on-year[2] - The export quantity growth showed a positive trend, with a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, marking the first positive growth in October in the past decade[3] Import Trends - In October 2024, China's import value decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from September, nearing the year's low point[5] - The total import amount was $213.34 billion, indicating a continued weakness in domestic demand[2] - Key imports such as crude oil and finished oil saw significant declines, with automotive imports dropping nearly 50$95.72 billion, an increase of $39.86 billion (71.3%) year-on-year[2] - The trade balance reflects a strong export performance despite the decline in imports, indicating a robust external demand environment[2] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to major trading partners improved, with growth rates to the US, ASEAN, EU, and Latin America reaching 8.1%, 15.8%, 12.7%, and 22.9% respectively[4] - The export dynamics are influenced by the recent recovery in global manufacturing sentiment, particularly in the US market[4] Future Outlook - Short-term export growth is expected to be supported by year-end holiday demand and potential export surges due to tariff pressures[6] - Long-term impacts from potential changes in US trade policy could significantly affect export levels, particularly regarding tariffs on Chinese goods[6]