2024年第四季度有色金属行业展望——政策聚焦节能降碳，行业信用风险整体可控

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable policy environment for the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on green and energy-saving carbon reduction, with an overall investment rating suggesting that credit risks are manageable [2][9]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is supported by demand from the electricity and new energy vehicle markets, with a slight increase in supply. Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc have shown year-on-year growth, with copper prices at a two-year high [2][7]. - The industry has seen a stable policy environment since the implementation of the carbon peak plan, with specific targets set for energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction [3][4]. - The demand from the electricity sector has increased by 24.8%, while the new energy vehicle production has surged by 33.8% year-on-year, indicating strong support for non-ferrous metals [5][6]. Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on achieving carbon peak goals, with various regional and sector-specific policies being implemented to enhance energy efficiency and promote the use of recycled metals [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in the industry’s energy structure and carbon emissions by 2025, with a target of over 24% for the share of recycled metals [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for non-ferrous metals is primarily driven by sectors such as electricity, real estate, transportation, and home appliances, with notable growth in electricity and new energy vehicles [5][6]. - The production of ten major non-ferrous metals in China reached 58.74 million tons in the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6]. Profitability - The overall revenue for the non-ferrous metals mining sector reached 268.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, while total profits increased by 18.8% to 69.51 billion yuan [7][8]. - Prices for key metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc have shown significant year-on-year increases, with copper prices averaging 74,926.85 yuan per ton, up 9.96% from the previous year [7]. Debt Market Situation - The non-ferrous metals mining sector has a total of 137 outstanding bonds, with a balance of 154.798 billion yuan, and the credit ratings of the issuers are predominantly AAA, indicating a low overall credit risk [9][10].