食品饮料行业周报：高端酒价格回落，乳业供需格局改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that with the shift in policies and the implementation of macroeconomic measures, the valuation of the sector has stabilized, indicating that medium to long-term opportunities are emerging. However, fundamental and performance drivers will require time, likely until after the Spring Festival in 2025. If subsequent positive policy combinations effectively improve corporate and household income levels and expectations, as well as enhance employment and asset prices, the demand for the sector is expected to fundamentally improve [1][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 3.56% last week, with the liquor segment down by 3.49%. The sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.04 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 sub-industries [15]. Liquor Sector - Moutai's price fell to 2,190 yuan per bottle, down 65 yuan week-on-week, while the box price dropped to 2,250 yuan, down 85 yuan. The price of Wuliangye is around 920 yuan. The retail sales data for October showed a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, primarily benefiting from the appliance replacement policy and early Double 11 promotions. The restaurant sector grew by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating some resilience [17]. Food Sector - The report indicates that the performance of mass-market food products in Q3 met expectations, with revenue under pressure but cost reductions supporting profit improvements. The dairy sector is expected to see a supply-demand balance improve, with upstream capacity reduction accelerating and raw milk prices stabilizing. The report anticipates that the supply-demand relationship will align better in Q4 and into next year, leading to profit improvements for leading companies [18][19]. Recommendations - Key recommendations include top liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as mass-market food companies like Yili, Anjuke, and Qingdao Beer. The report emphasizes the importance of strategic determination and execution capabilities for companies in the sector, alongside potential dividend levels and structural space for long-term investment value [16][17].